University of Wisconsin–Madison


 Peer-Reviewed Publications

Beal, M., G. Wilkinson, and P. Block, 2023. Large scale seasonal forecasting of peak season algae metrics in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. Water Research, 229, 119402.

Yang, M., G. Wang, S. Wu, P. Block, R. Lazin, S. Alexander, J. Lala, M. Haider, Z Dokou, E. Atsbeha, M. Koukoula, X. Shen, M. Pena, E. Nikolopoulos, A. Bagtzoglou, and E. Anagnostou, 2023. Seasonal prediction of crop yields in Ethiopia using an analog approachAgricultural and Forest Meteorology, 331, 109347.

Lala, J., M. Regassa, Y. Zhang, L. You, and P. Block, 2023.  Incorporating seasonality into an agro-economic model of Ethiopia.  Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 194(2): 05022018.

Lala, J., D. Lee, J. Bazo, and P. Block, 2022. Evaluating prospects for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast-based anticipatory action from a global perspectiveWeather and Climate Extremes, p.100510.

Lee, D., J.Y. Ng, S. Galelli, and P. Block, 2022. Unfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysis. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 26(9): 2431-2448,

Wirz, C.D., D. Brossard, K. Curtis, and P. Block, 2022. The risk of relocation: risk perceptions and communication surrounding the tradeoffs between floods and economic opportunities in Iquitos, Peru. Journal of Risk Research, 1-16,

Vavrus, S.J., F. Wang, and P. Block, 2022. Rainy season precipitation forecasts in coastal Peru from the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble. International Journal of Climatology,

Atsbeha, E., E. Holzer, S. Negatu, K. Kirksey, S. Alexander, P. Block, and E. Anagnostou,  2022.  Probability games, workshops and the social world of international science communicationBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(8), E1747-E1761,

Beal, M., B. O’Reilly, C. Soley, K. Hietpas, and P. Block, 2022.  Variability of summer cyanobacteria abundance: can season-ahead forecasts improve beach management?  Lake and Reservoir Management,

Wheeler, K., M. Jeuland, K. Strzepek, J. Hall, E. Zagona, G. Abdo, T. Basson, D. Blackmore, P. Block, and D. Whittington, 2022. Comment on ‘Egypt’s water budget deficit and suggested mitigation policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam filling scenarios’. Environmental Research Letters 17(8): 088003,

Alexander, S., and P. Block, 2022: Integration of seasonal precipitation forecast information into local-level agricultural decision-making using an agent-based model to support community adaptation, Climate Risk Management 36, 100417,

Beal, M., B. O’Reilly, K. Hietpas, and P. Block, 2021: Development of a sub-seasonal cyanobacteria prediction model by leveraging local and global scale predictorsHarmful Algae 108, 102100,

Lala, J., J. Bazo, V. Anand, and P. Block, 2021: Optimizing forecast-based actions for extreme rainfall events, Climate Risk Management, 34, 100374,

Yang, G. and P. Block, 2021: Water sharing policies conditioned on hydrologic variability to inform reservoir operations, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 25:3617-3634,

Lala, J., M. Yang, G. Wang, and P. Block, 2021: Utilizing rainy season onset predictions to enhance maize yields in EthiopiaEnvironmental Research Letters, 16(5), 054035,

Keating, C., D. Lee., J. Bazo, and P. Block, 2021: Leveraging multi-model season-ahead streamflow forecasts to trigger advanced flood preparedness in Peru, Natural Hazards Earth System Sciences 21:2215-2231,

Yang, Guang, B. Zaitchik, H. Bahr, and P. Block, 2021: A Bayesian adaptive reservoir operation framework incorporating streamflow non-stationarity, Journal of Hydrology 594,

Lee. D., H. Ahmadul, J. Patz, and P. Block, 2021: Predicting social and health vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh, Natural Hazards Earth System Sciences 21:1807-1823,

Yang, G., S. Guo, P. Liu, and P. Block, 2021: Sensitivity of forecast value in multiobjective reservoir operation to forecast lead time and reservoir characteristics, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 147(6), 04021027,

Alexander, S., E. Atsbeha, S. Negatu, K. Kirksey, D. Brossard, E. Holzer, and P. Block, 2020: Development of an interdisciplinary, multi-method approach to seasonal climate forecast communication at the local scale, Climatic Change 162(4):2021-2042,

Lala, J., S. Tilahun, and P. Block, 2020: Predicting rainy season onset in the Ethiopian highlands for agricultural planning, Journal of Hydrometeorology 21(7):1675-1688,

Gari, Y., P. Block, G. Assefa, M. Mekonnen, and S.A. Tilahun, 2020: Quantifying the United Nations’ Watercourse Convention Indicators to Inform Equitable Transboundary River Sharing: Application to the Nile River Basin, Water 12(9):2499, doi:10.3390/w12092499.

Alexander, S., G. Wang, G. Addisu, and P. Block, 2020: Forecast-informed reservoir operations to guide hydropower and agriculture allocations in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, International Journal of Water Resources Development, 1-26,

Delorit, J., and P. Block, 2020: Cooperative water trade as a hedge against scarcity: Accounting for risk attitudes in the uptake of forecast-informed water option contracts, Journal of Hydrology 583:124626, 

Yang, G., S. Guo, P. Liu, and P. Block, 2020: Integration and evaluation of forecast-informed multi-objective reservoir operations, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 146(6), 04020038,

Moradi, A., A. Dariane, G. Yang, and P. Block, 2020: Long-range reservoir inflow forecasts using large-scale climate predictors, International Journal of Climatology,

Delorit, J., D. Parker, and P. Block, 2019: An Agro-economic approach to framing perennial farm-scale water resources demand management for water right markets, Agricultural Water Management 218:68-81,

Giulaiani, M., M. Zaniolo, A. Castelletti, G. Davoli, and P. Block, 2019: Detecting the state of the climate system via artificial intelligence to improve seasonal forecasts and inform reservoir operations,Water Resources Research, (published online.)

Zhang, Y., L. You, D. Lee, and P. Block, 2019: Integrating Climate Prediction and Regionalization into an Agro-economic Model to Guide Agricultural Planning, Climatic Change 158:435-451,

Blum, A., B. Zaitchik, S. Alexander, S. Wu, Y. Zhang, S. Shukla, T. Alemneh, and P. Block, 2019: A Grand Prediction: Communicating and Evaluating 2018 Summertime Upper Blue Nile Rainfall and Streamflow Forecasts in Preparation for Ethiopia’s New Dam, Frontiers in Water 1:3, doi: 10.3389/frwa.2019.00003.

Delorit, J., and P. Block, 2019: Using seasonal forecasts to inform water market-scale option contracts, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 145(5), Winner of 2020 Best Research-Oriented Paper Award.

Alexander, S., S. Wu, and P. Block, 2019: Model selection based on sectoral application scale for increased value of hydroclimate prediction information, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 145(5),

Delorit, J., D. Parker, and P. Block, 2019: An agro-economic approach to framing perennial farm-scale water resources demand management for water rights markets, Agricultural Water Management 218: 68-81,

Delorit, J. and P. Block, 2018: Promoting competitive water resource use efficiency at the water-market scale: An inter-cooperative demand equilibrium-based approach to water trading, Water Resources Research,

Lee, D., P. Ward, and P. Block, 2018: Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase, Environmental Research Letters 13(4),

Mortensen, E. and P. Block, 2018: ENSO index-based insurance for agricultural protection in southern Peru, Geosciences (invited, special issue) 8(2), 64,

Lee, D., P. Ward, and P. Block, 2018: Attribution of large-scale climate patterns to seasonal peak-flow and prospects for prediction globally, Water Resources Research 54:916-938,

Wu, S. Notaro, S. Vavrus, E. Mortensen, R. Montgomery, J. De Pierola, P. Block, 2018: Efficacy of tendency and linear inverse models to predict southern Peru’s rainy season precipitation, International Journal of Climatology 38:2590-2604,

Mortensen, E., S. Wu, M. Notaro, S. Vavrus, R. Montgomery, J. De Pierola, C. Sanchez, and P. Block, 2018: Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables, Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences 22:287-303,

Zhang, Y., S. Moges, and P. Block, 2017: Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale?  Application to western Ethiopia, Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences 22:143-157,

Delorit, J. and P. Block, 2017: Evaluation of model-based seasonal streamflow and water allocation forecasts for the Elqui Valley, Chile, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21:4711-4725,

Zhang, Y., S. Erkyihun, and P. Block, 2016: Filling the GERD: Evaluating hydroclimatic variability and impoundment strategies on Blue Nile riparian countries, Water International (invited, special issue) 41(4):593-610,

Taye, M., T. Tadesse, G. Senay, and P. Block, 2016: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: a Source of Cooperation or Contention?, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 142(11):02516001,

Zimmerman, B., D. Vimont, and P. Block, 2016: Utilizing the State of El Nino/Southern Oscillation as a Means for Season-Ahead Precipitation Predictor Selection, Water Resources Research 52(5):3761-3774,

Zhang, Y., S. Moges, and P. Block, 2016: Optimal Cluster Analysis for Objective Regionalization of Seasonal Precipitation in Regions of High Spatial-Temporal Variability: Application to Western Ethiopia, Journal of Climate 39:3697-3717,

Reis, J., T. Culver, P. Block, and M. McCartney, 2016: Evaluating the impact and uncertainty of reservoir operation for malaria control as the climate changes in Ethiopia, Climatic Change 136(3-4):601-614,

Taye, M., P. Willems, and P. Block, 2015: Implications of climate change on hydrological extremes in the Blue Nile basin: A review, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 4 (2015):280-293,

Lee, D., P. Ward, and P. Block, 2015: Defining Flood Seasons Globally using Temporal Streamflow Patterns, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19:4689-4705,

Gyawali, S. Greb, and P. Block, 2015: Temporal changes in streamflow and attribution of changes to climate and land use in Wisconsin watersheds, Journal of the American Water Resources Association 51(14):1138-1152,

Zhang, Y., P. Block, M. Hammond, and A. King, 2015: Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam: Implications for Downstream Riparian Countries, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 141(9):05015002,

Dinku, T., P. Block, J. Sharoff, K. Hailermariam, D. Osgood, J. Del Corral, R. Cousin, and M. Thomson, 2014: Bridging critical gaps in climate services and applications in Africa, Earth Perspectives 1:15,

Robertson, A., W. Baethgen, P. Block, U. Lall, A. Sankarasubramanian, F. Souza Filho, and K. Verbist, 2014: Climate risk management for water in semi-arid regions, Earth Perspectives 1:12,

King, A, and P. Block, 2014: An Assessment of Reservoir Filling Policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Journal of Water and Climate Change 5(2): 233-243,

Baker, J., P. Block, K. Strzepek, R. de Neufville, 2013: Power of Screening Models for Developing Flexible Design Strategies in Hydropower Projects: Case Study of Ethiopia, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 140(12):04014038,

Block, P., and L. Goddard, 2012: Statistical and Dynamical Climate Predictions to Guide Water Resources in Ethiopia, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 138(3):287-298,

Block, P., and K. Strzepek, 2012: Power Ahead: Meeting Ethiopia’s Energy Needs Under a Changing Climate, Review of Development Economics 16(3):476-488,

Kwon, H-H, F.A. Souza Filho, P. Block, L. Sun, U. Lall, D.S. Reis Jr., 2012: Uncertainty Assessment of Hydrologic and Climate Forecast Models in Northern Brazil, Hydrological Processes 26(25):3875-3885,

Block, P., 2011: Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15:1355-1368,

Block, P., and K. Strzepek, 2010:  Economic Analysis of Large-scale Upstream River Basin Development on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia Considering Transient Conditions, Climate Variability, and Climate Change, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 136(2):156-166,

Block, P., A. Souza Filho, L. Sun, and H. Kwon, 2009:  A Streamflow Forecasting Framework using Multiple Climate and Hydrological Models, Journal of the American Water Resources Association 45(4):828-843,

Block, P., and B. Rajagopalan, 2009:  Statistical-Dynamical Approach for Streamflow Modeling at Malakal, Sudan, on the White Nile River, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 14(2):185-196,

Block, P., K. Strzepek, M. Rosegrant, and X. Diao, 2008:  Impacts of Considering Climate Variability on Investment Decisions in Ethiopia, Journal of Agricultural Economics 39:171-181,

Morin, J., P. Block, B. Rajagopalan and M. Clark, 2008:  Identification of Large Scale Climate Patterns Affecting Snow Variability in the Eastern United States, International Journal of Climatology 28(3):315-328,

Block, P., and B. Rajagopalan, 2007:  Interannual Variability and Ensemble Forecast of Upper Blue Nile Basin Kiremt Season Precipitation, Journal of Hydrometeorology 8(3):327-343,

Other Publications

Teferi Taye, M., Semu Moges, and P. Block, 2020: Evaluation of the CMIP5 climate model for precipitation projections over the upper Blue Nile basinin Climate Variability and Change in Africa: Perspectives, Experiences, and Sustainability. J. Matondo, B. Alemaw, and W. Sandwidi, editors. Sustainable Development Goals Series, Springer; ISBN 9783030315429.

Alexander, S., P. Block, A. Blum, S. Shukla, S. Wu, T. Yimane, B. Zaitchik, and Y. Zhang, 2018: Average to above average Blue Nile River flow expected in 2018, Climate Hazards Group, University of California – Santa Barbara.

Zhang, Y., S.T. Erkyihun, and P. Block, 2017: From projecting hydroclimate variability to filling the GERD: Upstream hydropower generation and downstream releases in The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Nile Basin: Implications for transboundary water cooperation.  Z. Yihdego, A. Rieu-Clarke, and A. Cascao, editors.  Earthscan Studies in Water Resource Management; ISBN 9781138064898.  LINK

Block, 2016: Tailoring Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Hydropower Operations in Meteorology and Energy Security: Simulations, Projections, and Management. P.S. Samuel, editor. CRC Press; ISBN 9781771883863.  LINK

Strzepek and co-authors, 2015: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: An opportunity for collaboration and shared benefits in the eastern Nile basin, MIT, Cambridge, MA, 17 pages. LINK

Cervigni, R. and co-authors, 2010: The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Ethiopia, The World Bank: Washington D.C., 96 pages. LINK

Block, P. and C. Brown, 2009:  Does Climate Matter? Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on Future Ethiopian Hydropower, Planning for an uncertain future – Monitoring, integration, and adaption. Proceedings of the Third Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds, United States Geological Survey, R. Webb and D. Semmens, editors. LINK

Baroang, K. M., M. Hellmuth, and P. Block, 2009: Identifying uncertainty and defining risk in the context of the WWDR-4. Discussion Paper prepared for the United Nations World Water Assessment Program, Perugia, Italy, 33 pages. LINK

Block, P., 2008:  An Assessment of Investments in Agriculture and Transportation Infrastructure, Energy, and Hydroclimatic Forecasting to Mitigate the Effects of Hydrologic Variability in Ethiopia, CPWF Working Paper 01, The CGIAF Challenge Program on Water and Food, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 53 pages. LINK

Block, P., K. Strzepek, and B. Rajagopalan, 2007: Integrated management of the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia: Hydropower and irrigation modeling, IFPRI Discussion Paper 700, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI): Washington, D.C., 25 pages. LINK

Sadoff, C. and co-authors, 2006: Ethiopia: Managing water resources to maximize sustainable growth, A World Bank Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia, The World Bank: Washington D.C., 73 pages. LINK

Block, P., K. Strzepek, M. Rosegrant, and X. Diao, 2006:  Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia, EPT Discussion Paper 150, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI): Washington, D.C., 38 pages. LINK