Forecast Design
Index definition: Southern Peru Rainfall index (SPRidx): January-March(JFM) 29 local stations domain averaged rainfall.
Station Information:
Forecast Models:
1) Simple NIÑO indices model: single regression models based NIÑO 1+2 and NIÑO 3.4 indices
2) Principal Component Regression (PCR): multiple regression model using first four principal components (PCs) of 11 potential season-ahead predictors (as identified via spatial correlation and composite mapping, global wavelet analysis, and literature review)
3) PC tendency Model: single regression model based on the Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies’ Principal Component (PC) tendency of August and November:
4) Linear Inverse Model (LIM): Based on PCs of Southern Peru rainfall, Pacific SST and 200 hPa geopotential heights (GHT)
Predictors and Verification:
JFM 2018 Forecast
References:
Mortensen, E., S. Wu, M. Notaro, S. Vavrus, R. Montgomery, J. De Piérola, C. Sánchez, and P. Block. 2017: Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-183, in review.
Wu S., M. Notaro, S.Vavrus, E. Mortensen, P.Block, R. Montgomery, J. Piérola and C. Sanchez. 2017: Statistical season-ahead summertime rainfall forecast for Southern Peru based on Principal Components tendency and Linear Inverse Model (to be submitted).
Additional Resources:
Standard disclaimer: These forecasts are experimental. We are not responsible for any loss occasioned by the use of these forecasts.
Other available forecasts:
NMME: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/
IRI: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
APCC: http://www.apcc21.org/ser/outlook.do?lang=en
Contact:
Paul Block: paul.block@wisc.edu
Shu Wu: swu33@wisc.edu
Eric Mortensen: emortensen3@wisc.edu
