University of Wisconsin–Madison

Communication of local-scale hydroclimate and crop predictions through seasonal forecast bulletins


While the skill of seasonal climate prediction has greatly advanced in the scientific field, integration of this information into decision-making has failed to keep pace due to a variety of challenges. In the face of increasing climate variability, it is imperative to focus efforts on resolving this disconnect if seasonal climate predictions are to be integrated for benefit to communities. Here, we co-produce a novel interdisciplinary, multi-method approach, through direct engagement between the forecast producers and target audience, to share relevant local scale prediction information. A highly visual forecast bulletin that combines local-scale predictions with adaptation suggestions is coupled with public engagement sessions that include interactive discussion of locally-relevant analogies, to enhance understanding of probabilistic information and ultimately overcome the majority of confusions identified during the discussion. Forecast bulletins are shown below for three communities during the 2019-2020 season (note: bulletin years correspond to the Ethiopian calendar).

Kiremt (wet) Season Forecast Bulletin

*Note: forecast bulletins were provide to three additional communities.

Bega (dry) Season Forecast Bulletin


PIRE Project Webpage

Alexander, S., Atsbeha, E., Negatu, S., Kirksey, K., Brossard, D., Holzer, E., and Block, P. 2020. “Development of an interdisciplinary, multi-method approach to seasonal climate forecast communication at the local scale” (submitted).